Sometimes when things are bleakest, look for the light and see how life can break right for you. For the New York Islanders, that epitomizes this week better than anything. With control of their destiny (which is a contradiction), the Islanders fell to the Washington Capitals and needed the Chicago Blackhawks to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins. When Chicago ACTUALLY beat the Penguins the next night, the Islanders would not squander their new chance to make the playoffs with a 4-2 win. Then the Islanders got another stroke of good luck as the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Florida Panthers to win the Metro Division and set up Game 1 vs the Islanders Monday night. So are the Islanders lucking into a possible run for a Stanley Cup or are they setting up their own demise?
Stars to watch: On a team with 38 goal scorer Bo Horvat and the dazzling speed of Mat Barzal, Brock Nelson has risen to be the face of the New York Islanders. After notching his second straight 30 goal season, Nelson crushed his previous career high 59 points to finish with 75 points on the offensively starved Isles. Nelson is also a center that sees a lot of the opposition top forwards. His +13 rating shows that if you match-up against him, he comes out on top more often than not. Nelson can terrorize opponents in every strength of the game and his 8 game winning goals ties him for 10th with Auston Matthews, Nate MacKinnon, Jason Robertson and Tage Thompson. When you're with those names, you're doing something right.
Breaking out this season, Martin Necas established new career highs in every major category. His 43 assists alone surpass his career high 41 points. His 28 goals are almost double his career high (16) and equal to his goal total the last 2 seasons. Necas has brought it on the Power Play were he collected 26 of his 71 points, but he plays complete game. Necas has floated around a point-per-game this season and he scored 16 points in March to finish strong. Sure you can focus on 35 goal scorer Sebastian Aho, but if Necas doesn't has your attention, the Islanders could find themselves going home quickly.
Goaltending: It's difficult to put into words what Ilya Sorokin means to the New York Islanders. Though he goes faaaaaaaaar beyond stats, a simple look at goaltending league leaders displays his name everywhere. His 2.34 Goals Against Average is 6th in the league, 0.924 Save % is 3rd and his 6 shutouts lead the league. The Islanders can tilt the scales quickly when opponents get frustrated when they cannot score on their Russian netminder; see Sorokin's potential season saving stop on Kris Letang. However, our Anthony LaRocco has argued that Sorokin should be a Hart finalist as he kept the Islanders alive when their offense bottomed out in the winter.
Last season, goalie Freddie Andersen was injured and couldn't play in the playoffs, but the net will likely be the 33 year-old's to lose. While Antti Raanta is the same age inherited the net when Andersen was out last year, the Danish goalie played the most games in the curious Carolina net. Andersen played in 33 games and is the THIRD Carolina starting goalie to play in at least 24 games. Those weren't the only numbers that were down this season for Andersen his first season on Tobacco Road where he finished 4th in Vezina voting. His Save % dropped from 0.922 to 0.904 and his Goals Against Average shot up from 2.17 to 2.43. The only good news is that the Canes goaltender produced a 2-1 record with a 2.67 GAA and a 0.905 Save % vs the Islanders. One has to wonder who they turn to if he falters, though it kind of doesn't matter who the Canes play in net with their style of play, Canes coach Rod Brind'Amour can't feel too comfortable in net.
Under-the-radar players: In a mere 18 games played with the New York Islanders, Pierre Engvall has fit like a glove. The former Maple Leaf has 5 goals with the Islanders (tying him with Patrick Kane of the Rangers) and last week he assisted on the Islanders only goal vs the Hurricanes. While you can argue other players like Zach Parise or Josh Bailey, Engvall has been the most under-the-radar trade deadline acquisition and he was purely a salary dump that Lou Lamiorello has reaped all the rewards for.
Carolina's defense is among the best in the league and their second best scoring defenseman Brady Skjei has 18 goals this season, which ranks 4th on the Canes. Skjei has doubled his previous career high of 9 goals this season and will be asked to keep it up against the Islanders. While the Islanders have 8 goal scorers in double digits, the Canes have 11 of them and Skei's 18 is best of the teen goal scorers. If he continues his production from the backend, the Islanders will be on summer vacation quickly.
The New York Islanders will win if... They play their defensive game and pounce when the Canes make a mistake. The Isles were 1-3 vs Carolina Hurricanes and outscored 9 to 12, but they have one weapon the Canes do not have; Ilya Sorokin. If it comes down to needing a big save, you have to believe the Islanders goaltender can give it to his team and turn the tide back in his favor.
The Carolina Hurricanes will win if... They attack the Islanders defense. Carolina has one of the best forecheck systems in the league and they can make the Islanders defensemen feel uncomfortable. The problem? Carolina lost their 23 goal scorer Andrei Svechnikov on March 11th and since their record hasn't been impressive at 9-8-1. They've actually been outscored 49-51. Keeping the puck in the Islanders end and continuing to frustrate their goal scorers could lead to saw dust coming out of their sticks.
Prediction: There's too many hard series to predict this postseason. This one is no different. Right now, all the numbers favor the Islanders who finished with a 8-5-1 record to close the season and a +12 goal differential vs a Carolina team that seemed to struggle to the finish line. However if Sebastian Aho gets going, the Canes will be unstoppable. The Islanders have a Sebastian Aho too, but he's not the same. Home ice will be tremendous in this series and the Islanders are a game below .500 on the road. Look for Carolina's 28-10-3 home record to hold serve here. Hurricanes in 7.
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