In the movie Tombstone, Powers Boothe faces Kurt Russell (Wyatt Earp) and Val Kilmer (Doc Holliday), and Russell declares that he's retired. Not Kilmer's Holliday, who tells Michael Biehn's Johnny Ringo, "I'm still in my prime." If asked right now, New York Islanders' Brock Nelson would say the same. Wednesday night, Nelson redirected a perfect feed from Pierre Engvall for his 2nd goal of the game and 10th of the season. The Islanders center leads the team in goals, doubling his nearest teammate, and is saving his best hockey for his thirties, a feat few players can achieve.
Brock Nelson was always a fine player for the Isles, notching over 20 goals in three of his first 5 seasons, but after John Tavares departed, Nelson took on a bigger role with the team. The Islanders have been receiving the dividends ever since. Nelson topped 50 points in 3 of the next four seasons and would have in all four if not for the 2021 abbreviated season. However, Nelson saved his best seasons for when he entered his 30s. In his first season after leaving his 20s behind, Nelson notched his first thirty-goal season, nearly reaching 40 goals. The encore performance in the following season, the Minnesota native scored 36 times, but his 39 helpers were a career-high in assists and points (75). Those 75 points were the highest by an Islander since Mat Barzal's rookie season (85). For his efforts, Nelson was named the Islanders All-Star last season.
Nelson's goal-scoring presence has been remarkable. His 152 goals since 2018 blow away the nearest Islander, Anders Lee (119), who was the picture of consistency until this season. The Islanders captain averaged 28 goals (or was on pace for it) since Tavares bolted north of the border. Nelson is finding a new level. Two seasons ago, Nelson's 21.6 shooting % was the highest among thirty goal scorers, and last season, he posted similar scoring after a drop in shooting percentage. His 18.6 shooting % is 3rd best among players with 150 games played behind Leon Draisaitl and Roope Hintz. That's a pretty good company to keep. Nelson is using every aspect of his game to score: his wrist shot, deflections in front, or pouncing on rebounds - you name it.
This season, he's among the leaders in goal scorers a constant pain for opponents. The Islanders desperately need the 32-year-old to keep scoring because when he does, they get points. In games where the Islanders register a point, Nelson has 9 goals and 4 assists. In losses, Nelson has one goal...and that's it. The same was true for last season as well. In the 51 games, the Islanders got a point, and Nelson scored 33 times with 29 apples. In the 31 games where the Isles couldn't get a point, Nelson had 3 goals and 10 assists. Over the last two seasons, he's been the Islanders MVP, and no one is a close second.
Which makes the next season's contract negotiations even more interesting. Nelson is set to become an Unrestricted Free Agent after the 2024-25 season after making $6m since the 2019-20 season. To say Islanders' GM Lou Lamoriello got a bargain out of this deal is an understatement, and Nelson will be a hot commodity. However, what he will demand is intriguing, as Nelson will be 34 when the 2025-26 season begins. It's not often when players are handed mega-deals at that age, but could Nelson take a "hometown" discount to conclude his career with the Islanders? If Big Lou has proved anything, he's loyal to "his guys," and Nelson is definitely that. One has to wonder if his AAV increases, and if so, what's the right term to hand a player three years away from 37?
Why 37? Most analytics show player drop-off around that time; look across the Hudson to the New York Rangers Blake Wheeler, who is far from what he used to be. Sure, there's "old man" Joe Pavelski in Dallas, who is still performing well at 39 years old. Which one will Nelson be? Perhaps the latter since his game is aging like a fine wine.
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