Let me tell you this story. I was in Breckenridge, Colorado for the only ski trip I've been on in my life. It was a great time, but as a novice skier, my buddy pushed me to go on the T-Bar to go to the top of the mountain. So we got on before he and his snowboard fell off. Being a good friend, I got off and thought, "we're not going." Oh no, we were going! We got back on the T-Bar and he fell off again. Before I could move to get off, he screamed, "Go to the top! Go on without me!" So I pressed on and got to the top of the mountain; a LOT nervous, but excited. I couldn't believe I got to what I thought was the top of North America, but also nervous about getting back down cause I have only been on two double black diamonds in my life. It wasn't until I saw a ski school where the youngest member was maybe 5 years old, where I said, "I can do this." For the Colorado Avalanche, they stumbled so many times en route to the team they'd become this season. There was always a "Yeah, but..." until this season. Something was different. And as the season went on, the Avs made it to the top of the mountain.
2021-22 Pre-Season expectations: The Avs were always a team that was knocking on the door of being a Stanley Cup Champ without ever making the Western Conference Finals. It looked REALLY GOOD last year after a first round sweep of the St. Louis Blues and winning their first two games in the second round vs the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Unfortunately, the Avalanche would lose the next four games and fail to make the third round. Could they break through to the Western Conference Finals or possibly the Stanley Cup Finals?
2021-22 Result: The Colorado Avalanche defeated the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay in 6 games to win the Stanley Cup. Can't get more successful than that! The Avs lost a total of 4 games in the 2022 playoffs to STEAM ROLL their way to the Stanley Cup. Even though some people wondered aloud if the Avalanche had too easy of a road to get to the Finals, the Avs answered the call at every opportunity to elevate themselves and get "playoff tough". Their most important test came in Game 1 of the Finals against Tampa, where Tampa rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force Overtime. However 1:23 into the extra session, Andre Burakovsky would bury a feed from Valeri Nichushkin to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy to take a 1-0 lead. Three wins later, including an OT win, a 7-0 BLOWOUT and a 2-1 tight forechecking game to closeout the two-time champs, who embarrassed the President's Trophy Florida Panthers and outlasted the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs.
What Went Right: Pretty much EVERYTHING. Here's a list of the Avalanche core that enjoyed career best seasons: Mikko Rantanen (92 points), Nazem Kadri (87 points), Cale Makar (86 points), Andre Burakowsky (61 points), Devon Toews (57 points) and Valeri Nichushkin (52 points) and tack on a career high points per game by Nate MacKinnon at 1.35 p/g, there wasn't a spot that Colorado didn't fire on. Could they fortify their goaltending after 2021 Vezina finalist Philipp Grubauer left for Seattle. They brought in Darcy Kuemper from Arizona and his number were steady most of the season. Then could they strengthen their lineup in the bottom 6, former Avalanche Conn Smythe trophy winner / Captain / Current President Joe Sakic traded for wingers Artturi Lehkonen and Andrew Colgliano, as well as defenseman Josh Manson. All of those moves paid off. Look no further than the last goal of the season that won the Stanley Cup by Artturi Lehkonen and that was after he scored the OT winner to put the Avs into the Stanley Cup Final.
What went wrong: This is easy. Samuel Girard was lost in the second round vs the St Louis Blues...aaaaaaaaand that's it. Colorado's coach Jared Bednar got quality hockey out of Jack Johnson, would was considered a 2005 draft bust. Ask Rangers, Penguins, Kings and Blue Jacket fans.
Reasons to be optimistic: The hardest thing that for the Avs was that they couldn't break through. Now they did. Their core players are all young with the oldest members in the top 6 are Gabriel Landeskog (29, 30 in November) and Nazem Kadri (31, 32 in October). They could contend for Cup for the next 3 years without much issues. St. Louis is in flux. Minnesota is dealing with cap issues. Dallas is incomplete. Edmonton could have taken a huge leap forward, but Colorado swatted them like a fly. This is all without considering that 2019 4th overall pick is growing as a player, the Avs could add to the Cup again pretty soon.
Reasons to be pessimistic: It's REALLY hard to not find these, but I'll try. To open the postseason, the Avalanche have $25.685m in Cap Space; however they have 5 key free agents to re-sign (Kadri, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Josh Manson, Darren Helm and Kuemper) as well as one more year remaining on the contracts to J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson and 2014 top overall pick Nate MacKinnon. The latter is the scariest one. Sakic must extend MacKinnon NOW to understand what he has to spend this off-season, because NONE of the players mentioned above are going to cost them their franchise center. Expect MacKinnon to sign an extension north of $11m as his market's worth and slice a BIG chunk of that cap space away. The good news is that the star center is still signed for one more year at $6 million and even a $12m/year deal, will only slice it down to $19m. Plenty to sign at least TWO of the people mentioned above unless someone BLOWS the doors off someone like Nazem Kadri.
What this team needs: To be fiscally responsible. If Joe Sakic isn't just shedding money everywhere, he's going to lose at least one big name free agent. Nazem Kadri could be on the move to a team with LOTS of cap space. Don't just hand out raises like they're going out of style.
22-23 Expectations: To repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. It's hard not to see Colorado repeating like the Lightning and Penguins before them. Hard to see their competition is going to get better. Calgary may lose Gaudreau. Edmonton still doesn't have goaltending (at the moment). First things first, the Avs are the best in their division and there aren't many juggernauts in their way. Here's the end of my ski story. I went down the hill without falling and found out the next day that there was a chair lift that went HIGHER up the mountain. Can the Avalanche reach a higher level? We'll find out in a year's time.
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