The Carolina Hurricanes will return to home ice on Thursday after completing a productive three game road trip to likely playoff participants in St. Louis, Washington and Tampa Bay. During this trip, the Canes were able to grab five of a possible six points, ending their recent funk of struggling to score goals. A 16-7 goal differential during the trip has restored offensive confidence, while putting the Canes on the inside track to win the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed. Carolina has surrendered one less goal than second place Calgary. The Canes have also played one more game than the Flames.
What went well
The Canes were able to put the puck in the net. In the preceding six games before this trip, the Canes posted a shooting percentage of 6%. This number improved to 21% on the trip, scoring 16 goals on a total of 76 shots. Maintaining this shooting percentage will be unsustainable, but in the short term, it provided confidence that this team can score goals in bunches. Seven goals in St. Louis followed by six in Washington is formidable. Carolina does not have to win games 3-2 or 2-1.
Defensively, this team remains the best in the league at 2.43 goals allowed per game. Despite the high powered offenses faced on this trip and the recent goal scoring struggles of the Canes, there wasn't a modification to the defensive system. They stayed the course and the positive regression that was expected to happen with shooting percentage occurred.
Tuesday was an opportunity to have an off-night, yet it did not occur. With two wins already in the bank and facing a back to back in Tampa before flying home, it would have been reasonable to not have an A-effort. Instead, the Canes put forth another great effort and nearly pulled out the win. Of other importance is the willingness to add more jam to their game. Carolina and Tampa had a physical game one week earlier, ending with post-game pushing and shoving. Carolina won't ever be mistaken for the Broad Street Bullies, but they won't be pushed around either.
What went wrong
Not too much. This trip could have jeopardized first place position in the Metro. Instead, Carolina is now sitting at a +29, five clear of New York and seven clear of Pittsburgh.
The penalty killing confidence needs to be restored, however. Entering Tuesday, the Canes were killing penalties at a rate of 89.4%, just 0.2% off the league record set by New Jersey in 2011-12. Tampa was able to score three with the man-advantage, including the winner in overtime. Carolina has been vulnerable to surrendering power play goals in bunches, as evidenced by Tampa going 7 for 16 with the advantage during last season's playoff series. There's a concern that this could become a deficiency against the better power plays.
Where they stand
The Canes continue to pace the Metro and sit just one game behind Florida (+30) for the conference lead. With the Atlantic division tightening up between positions 2-4, it's becoming increasingly likely that the highest seeded team will play Washington in the first round. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs. After all, there was no way the 8th seeded Columbus Blue Jackets were going to defeat President's Cup winning Tampa in '18-19, right? The repercussion of winning the Metro, but not being seeded first is a likely date with Tampa, Boston or Toronto in the opening round. That's not exciting.
This last month of the regular season will prove interesting to see how the playoff teams approach it. All eight of the playoff teams are essentially decided. Will these teams pace themselves and prepare exclusively for the playoffs? Will teams put their best effort forward to improve seeding? Is improved seeding worth the effort if it doesn't lead to being first? The East will be a gauntlet. The team that represents the conference in the Stanley Cup Final will have earned it. There's a strong case to be made that being seeded first and having what appears to be a favorable opening round matchup against likely opponent Washington, would be the path of least resistance.
What's on tap
Thursday, March 31 vs Montreal
Saturday, April 2 vs Minnesota
Tuesday, April 5 at Buffalo
#Carolina Hurricanes
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