In 2012, Marvel Studios released The Avengers and movie making was changed forever. Four movies led to this crossover event as Tom Hiddleston delivered his devious monologue and Robert Downey Jr gave the reply that flooded the internet till today. Everyone knows one of the greatest sound bites ever, but just in case you lived under a rock, he says back to the film's villain, "Not a great plan." Ironman outlines Loki's mistake of creating the Avengers and consequently his own downfall. Well it's sometimes takes years to look at the flaws in a plan (or lack there of in some cases). Here we are in year 3 of the New York Rangers landing the top pick Alexis Lafreniere to be paired with the previous Number 2 overall Kaapo Kakko for a period of prosperity that will be the envy of the NHL aaaaaaaaaaand we have to ask "What's the plan?!!!" Because what the Blueshirts are doing right now is "Not a great plan".
Instead of looking back, let's examine the present as the New York Rangers played two recent games on their west coast trip. In San Jose, 4th year player Kaapo Kakko played 14 minutes and 54 seconds; seeing the leftover 1:02 of Power Play time. Alexis Lafreniere got slightly more time with 14:59 of ice time and 1:16 of PP time as well. By contrast, Barclay Goodrow was promoted to the 2nd line and 15:55 of ice time also journeyman Jimmy Vesey played 16:09. The Rangers two top picks ranked 8th and 9th in ice time out of 12 forwards. In their fourth and third year... Well, maybe that's not an indication of their usage, but in Seattle, Kakko ranked 7th in ice time with 12:54 of ice time and Lafreniere's 12:36 is ONE SECOND more than 9th place Filip Chytil. The pair saw ZERO minutes in crunch time and OT, which the Rangers lost. In 19 games this season, Kakko has surpassed 16 minutes a mere 9 times. Alexis Lafreniere 10 times and NEITHER has played that much since the come-from-ahead-loss to the New York Islanders on November 8th. Their seasons check in with Kakko scoring 3 goals, 4 assists and Lafreniere 2 goals 5 assists. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT, the Rangers are not developing these players. Even though they are currently ranked 5th and 6th for average Ice Time among forwards, the usage of Vesey going up as the usage of Kakko and Lafreniere decreases is alarming. Is it their play or is it a mistake by Gallant?
By comparison, Tim Stutzle - who was drafted third overall and behind Alexis Lafreniere - LEADS the Ottawa Senator forwards in ice time. Detroit's Lucas Raymond (4th overall) is second among Red Wing forwards in ice time. However LA Kings' center Quinton Byfield (2nd overall) is only averaging 11:46 in his 8 games this season because (like NYR) the Kings have a log jam at center. Kakko is far behind 19:13 of ice time by nearly 3:30 minutes 2019 top overall pick Jack Hughes gets in New Jersey. Kirby Dach is 4th among Canadien forwards in ice time with 16:39. That's STILL 45 seconds more than Kakko. Buffalo's Dylan Cousins is 3rd among forwards with 17:10. The Rangers moved Pavel Buchnevich to open up ice time for players THEY STILL AREN'T USING.
Part of the problem is that top overall picks go to teams that grow with the player. The Rangers had entrenched stars
If you are a top 5 pick, you're usually a player that is going to a bad team with a huge hole in it that you'll eventually fill. Whether it's Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power filling the holes in the Sabres defense or Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Connor McDavid going to franchises that GREATLY needed a centerpiece (literally). On occasion, established teams get the first overall pick and add to their franchise. The Tampa Bay Lightning had stars in Marty St Louis and Vincent Lecavilier, but were lucky enough to land Steven Stamkos with the top pick in 2008 and Victor Hedman with the 2nd pick in 2009. 2014 saw Matt Duchene's Colorado Avalanche draft Nathan MacKinnon with the top pick. Even though neither team moved on from their star right away, eventually MacKinnon and Stamkos became the backbone of their teams. Though the writing was on the wall from day one, Duchene wasn't moved until November 2017, three FULL seasons after drafting MacKinnon. Opening space to use MacKinnon more and use him to a much greater extent, helped both the Avs and MacKinnon as he took off. He went from a 53 point scorer to a 97 point scorer with comparable numbers ever since. Before that, MacKinnon couldn't crack 54 points outside his rookie season. Steven Stamkos quickly became a star for Tampa Bay and helped lead them to the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 loss.
What happened with the Rangers is unprecedented. Winning the 2nd overall to take Kakko was on the Rangers rebuilding schedule, but the shock was winning the top pick for Lafreniere. The system in 2020 was tweaked to accommodate the teams that lost in the qualifying round of the 24 team playoff tourney. In the lottery, an NHL placeholder team (Winnipeg Jets' ball) won the lottery. The NHL had to have a second lottery for 8 teams with an equal chance to win the top pick, which went to NY. So while Kakko is a Right Wing, Alexis Lafreniere is a Left Wing and the New York Rangers signed Artemi Panarin to an 8 year deal in 2019 and Chris Kreider to a 7 year extension only month BEFORE they won the pick. While the situation is not ideal, talent usually wins out. That is unless you have a coach who is trying to save their job every night. That was true for head coach David Quinn, going with Colin Blackwell and stifling ice time for his two top picks, AND Gerard Gallant, who is doing the exact same thing by scratching Kakko for an elimination game in the Eastern Conference Finals in favor of Dryden Hunt. His excuse? "I was just trying to win a hockey game." While Gallant is the most successful Rangers coach since 2015, his decisions are starting to come under fire as it is clear he is NOT developing Kakko and Lafreniere. It's hard to believe that Alexis Lafreniere is in his 3rd NHL season and has 59 career points with a sparse 2 points on the power play. Kakko has 65 career points with 13 PP (2 goals, 11 assists) points in year one and 5 power play points SINCE 2020. That's not lack of production to blame on the players. The lack of opportunity given by the coaches. Hate to break it to the coach of this team under this structure; you have to win games AND develop these players.
However a funny thing happened in April of 2022 before the playoffs. Coach Gerard Gallant put Lafreniere, Kakko and 2017 21st overall selection Filip Chytil together and the line flourished in the playoffs. Chytil posted 7 goals and 2 assists in the 20 game playoff run (almost equalling his season total) and Lafreniere and Kakko passed the eye test on a semi-nightly basis. There were times they played their age. There were times they played above it. Once again, they aren't progressing because the Rangers aren't prioritizing them. The Rangers can say their playing time and development is important, but their playing time is clearly not a priority. Actions speak louder than words and the numbers above are clear.
The real question is: Is there a plan for these potential franchise players? Whatever camp you may be in, the fact is that they haven't been given the opportunity. The Rangers can't just jettison their stars. Artemi Panarin is among the NHL scoring leaders. Mika Zibanejad is a star center and Chris Kreider is the longest tenured Blueshirt coming off his career best season, so they're asking their prized young talents to wait (presumably till 2024 when Kreider can be moved). However, other young players can feel that burden too. As 2021 16th overall pick Brennan Othmann is currently tearing up the OHL and 2018 9th overall Vitali Kravtsov is trying to prove he can play in this league, the Rangers response was to sign Vincent Trocheck and continue to halt the progression of their young players? Regardless of what you think of the Trocheck signing or letting Ryan Strome go, the continued benching of Kakko and Lafreniere speaks volumes because the Rangers are a Cup contender. What if they're the answer to the troubles the Blueshirts are going through right now? What if they're the key to acquiring new talent? Bottom line, the Rangers need to know what they have before they waste the talent they had under cost control. The reason why this is coming to a crossroads sooner than later: Alexis Lafreniere is going to be an RFA next season and though it seems he is happy, other players in his draft class like Tim Stutzle got paid to the tune of 8 years / $66.8m. If there isn't a plan for Lafreniere to succeed in this league and the cap-strapped Rangers take a step back this season, why would he stay? An offer sheet could be likely in this situation. If there Rangers hope to keep their only top overall pick since the NHL pre-expansion era, they may have to sell him into not signing an offer sheet. Kakko already took a discount to stay when he signed a $4.2m / 2 year deal in this off-season. Will Laf take a similar deal? What if you're watching Jimmy Vesey get more ice time as others around you time get paid more?
Where does this leave the Rangers? If the plan is to use Kakko and Lafreniere as role players, that's NOT A GREAT PLAN. If the plan is telling them to wait and maybe get paid in 2025, that's NOT A GREAT PLAN. If the plan is to acquire more talent like Patrick Kane at the trade deadline and continue to make Lafreniere and Kakko watch instead of participate, that's NOT A GREAT PLAN. At the moment fans are starting to get restless about whether or not their top picks are "busts", but the real question is "What's the plan for them?" The Rangers HAVE TO ANSWER this question soon before this turns into a disaster.
Comentarios