There's a line from Bruce Springsteen's song "Glory Days" where he catches up with an old friend at a bar. "I was walking in, He was walking out." Then the two old acquaintances walk back into the bar, have a couple drinks as one of them only talks about their glory days. Well, for the first time since 2017, the New York Rangers are walking into the bar known as the NHL Playoffs. As they're walking in, the Pittsburgh Penguins are walking out. The Rangers are a rebuilt team with some young blood and veterans that have been around. The Penguins are...well...dependent on their star Sidney Crosby, trying to keep the championship window open. The Pens didn't exactly roll post trade deadline with a 8-9-2 record. Can the still-holding-on-to-their-glory-days Penguins beat the upstart New York Rangers?
Can the Penguins goaltending match Rangers' Igor Shesterkin?
Stars to Watch: Rangers Artemi Panarin didn't have a great start to the season based on the eye test. He was putting up points, but something was missing. As our John Filkowski pointed out several times during the first half of the season, Panarin would disappear for long portions of the game. Panarin has picked up his game in the last two months and is looking like the player that was a 2020 Hart Trophy Finalist (MVP). And he hasn't been alone. His lineman Ryan Strome has been producing at a career high pace, but Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad are posting career highs too. THEN Rangers GM Chris Drury added Andrew Copp at the trade deadline and PANARIN IS ROLLING. His 40 points in March and April put him in the league's top 10, but the Rangers held him out to ensure a healthy playoff run. Panarin hasn't been in the playoffs since 2019 with Columbus, so you have to figure he'll be ready to silence any doubters. He has a goal and 3 assists vs the Penguins - literally equaling the Penguins team scoring BY HIMSELF.
It's a testiment to Sidney Crosby's career that looking at his 84 points, you'd think, "He only has 84 points." Make no mistake, Crosby is still Crosby and still dangerous. The worst part is that he's dangerous in his own end too. Crosby's defensive play is just as impressive as his offensive side. The former isn't as sexy as the latter, but it's arguably more important. Being able to stick handle in mid-air is more impressive than covering the slot down low. But Crosby is still a star and he did score one of the four Penguins goals on Igor Shesterkin this season. Never underestimate him cause it'll never end well for your goaltender.
Goaltenders: It seemed like an argument all through the mid-season that Igor Shesterkin was not only the Vezina Trophy winner but the Hart Trophy winner (MVP). In one of the most offensive NHL seasons in a while, the Goalie on Broadway would have a sub 2 Goals Against Average and a .940 Save %. Then March came and Shesterkin was human, posting a 7-3 record, a 2.68 GAA and .916 Save %. While other goalies would LOVE those numbers, critics were concerned Igor was coming back to Earth. To answer them, Shesterkin posted a 4-4-1 record with a .930 Save % and a 1.96 GAA in April. While the record isn't impressive, the other numbers are. So Shesterkin will begin his ACTUAL first playoff series (He did play Game 3 of the 2020 Play-In round vs Carolina). How will he handle the playoff pressure? No one knows for sure, but since his first period in the NHL, he hasn't looked rattled and handled every moment resiliently. Can any team get in his head? Maybe, but it ain't Pittsburgh.
Tristan Jarry is dealing with a lower body issue and it’s uncertain if or how much he’ll play. I already broke down Tristan Jarry's awful 2021 first round vs the Islanders...but I'll say again his Game 5 giveaway was atrocious and his game 6 wasn't exactly clutch. Jarry did outplay Shesterkin once in February, but like flexing a muscle, you can't always do it. Maybe, just maybe, Jarry can do it once more. Possibly twice, but can he do it FOUR times? Jarry was an all star this season, perhaps that'll carry over into the postseason. Or maybe he'll give up a bad goal from an off-angle and fall back into his 2021 form. In Jarry’s stead, Casey DeSmith has started every game since April 16th. His high: a 52 game save shutout over the Boston Bruins. His low: Tuesday’s 4 goals surrendered to Connor McDavid’s Oilers. DeSmith has been a capable back-up in the past, but can he outplay the likely Vezina Trophy winner?
Under-the-radar players : Evan Rodrigues was one of the hottest goal scorers earlier in the season, but he's got 4 goals since the All Star Game - one in each of the last three months and the last day of the season. That's a steep decline from his 15 goals before January 31st. That actually gets him here. Penguins gotta hope he finds his game again and can capitalize on the match-up vs the Chytil line. Can he recapture the magic he had earlier in the season?
It sounds odd to have the 2020 #1 overall pick being an “under-the-radar player”, but Alexis Lafrenière has been very good over the last month. He has shown creativity and confidence as he’s amassed 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points over the last two months - predominantly with Filip Chytil and Barclay Goodrow - who aren’t offensive juggernauts by any interpretation. His lack of PP time has cast a light on his usage by Gerard Gallant. Why break up the 4th best PP in the league to pad Laf’s stats anyway? Besides since moving him down to the third line back to his natural left side, Lafreniere has blossomed with the lesser role. If Lafreniere can continue to be a force on the third line, the Rangers win dominate in this post-season. If he’s not, the Rangers glaring weakness could cripple their Stanley Cup hopes.
The Rangers will win if: They continue to kill penalties as well as they have all season and their offense is just as good at 5-on-5 as it is on the Power Play. The Rangers are the top NHL team at keeping scoring chances down since the Trade Deadline. They'll have to keep that up as they stifled the Penguins in the games since March 20th. In those 3 games vs the Pens, they swarmed the Penguins in the first period, comeback and closed the door on them in Pittsburgh and shutout at MSG. Was it an aberration or a sign of things to come?
The Penguins will win if: They dominate 5-on-5 and exploit the Rangers weakness; their third line. The Penguins PK is third best in the league and can neutralize the high-powered Rangers Power Play. Their own Power Play produced their only game winner in the series as Evgeni Malkin's third period one-timer was the only goal in a 1-0 win in late-February.
Prediction: It's hard to see the Penguins being much of a threat in this series with goaltending issues and the lack of those issues with the Rangers; it's going to be an uphill battle for the Penguins. They could win two games in this series, but the Rangers should close this one out quickly in 5.
Series schedule
Tuesday May 3rd 7 PM: Pit at NY Rangers
Thursday May 5th 7 PM: Pit at NY Rangers
Saturday May 7th 7 PM: NY Rangers at Pit
Monday May 9th 7 PM: NY Rangers at Pit
Wednesday May 11th TBD: Pit at NY Rangers
Friday May 13th TBD: NY Rangers at Pit
Sunday May 15th TBD: Pit at NY Rangers
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