"Should I Stay or Should I go?" A question asked by the Clash several times in their three minute song. The metaphors here are endless. Say you're holding on to a stock and you're waiting for it to blow up into Tesla so you can scream, "I'M RICH, BIATCH!!!!!". Unfortunately, you check in on that stock every day and its growth is pedestrian. Do you sell the stock? Do you wait? It could depreciate or it could blow up. What to do?! ARRRRGH!!!! I wish I had a crystal ball so I didn't sell my Google stock when it was $85 a share. You don't want to be that guy, or the girl that breaks up with someone just before they win the lottery. So when you look at the New York Rangers' Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko (and to a lesser extent Islanders' Oliver Wahlstrom), fans ask the question all the time about these flowers that haven't exactly bloomed yet. However, as I've said on the Big Apple Hockey Podcast, "it's better to give up a day late, than a day early." In recent years, there's cases of shedding the dead weight and robbing the team that acquired a top pick, some that regret it and some where the jury is still out. Let's take a look.
Kirby Dach Montreal Canadiens (2019 3rd Overall pick by Chicago): In 2019, there were pundits that whispered that the New York Rangers should pass on Kaapo Kakko for Kirby Dach. After all, Dach was being compared to Jonathan Toews. The Rangers had a clear need for a franchise center, but he'd go to the team Toews played for in Chicago. Dach's first year with the Blackhawks was okay for a first year player. In 64 games, the Alberta native notched eight goals and 15 assists for 23 points, but he did have two game winning goals, which fortifies the narrative that he's a clutch player. Dach's 2nd season was marred by an unfortunate incident. In the 2020 World Juniors, Dach would collide with Russian forward Ilya Safonov and break his wrist. Dach would miss about four months and only play 18 games for the Hawks (2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points). Then came the 2021-22 season, where Dach impressed no one. In 70 games, Dach managed nine goals, 17 assists, 26 points with a -18 rating. The Blackhawks new GM Kyle Davidson, was left with the tough decision on keeping Dach and trying to build around him or trading him for whatever assets they can accrue. Davidson chose the latter and moved him to Montreal in a sequence of trades that concluded with the Hawks getting the 13th pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. With a change of scenery, Dach exploded in Quebec with a 14 goal, 24 assist, 38 point season for the Habs. As of right now, it appears that Montreal acquired the player Chicago thought they were getting.
Dylan Strome Washington Capitals (3rd overall 2015 pick by Arizona): The 2015 NHL Draft will be known as the "McDavid Draft". In a race to the bottom by the Coyotes and Sabres, neither ended up with the budding superstar. BU's Jack Eichel went number 2 to the Sabres and Arizona was left with the next best prospect, whom was Dylan Strome. The Erie Otters center - with brother Ryan a top overall pick as well - seemed like a great consolation prize to missing out on the top two. In 2015-16, Strome spent the full season in the OHL; scoring 111 points in 56 games. Strome would play seven games in the 2016-17 season with an assist to show for his efforts, however, he notched 75 points in 35 games when the Coyotes returned him to the Erie. It still seemed like the Coyotes had a quality player in their future, but after 48 games in the desert, the Coyotes dealt Strome (with Brendan Perlini) to the Chicago Blackhawks for Nick Schmaltz. Strome would flourish with the Hawks in his first season in the Windy City with 51 points in 58 games, but would regress every subsequent season until bouncing back with his 48 point season in 21-22. The Blackhawks elected to not tender the 25 year-old forward, making him an Unrestricted Free Agent and landing in Washington. Strome would play 81 games (career high), 23 goals (career high), 42 assists (career high) and 65 points (you guessed it...a career high) in the national's capital under then Capitals coach Peter Laviolette. So did the Coyotes and Hawks give up too quickly on Dylan Strome or did he finally find a home?
Jonathan Drouin Montreal Canadiens (2013 3rd Overall pick by Tampa Bay): In 2013, after Colorado took Nathan MacKinnon and Florida snatched Aleksander Barkov, the Tampa Bay Lightning thought they had added another star to their roster of Steven Stamkos and Viktor Hedman. Instead, Drouin was a reality TV show that no one in Hollywood could write. The Lightning would send Drouin back to the QMJHL where he'd score 29 times with 79 assists. The 19 year-old forward was poised to play a full season on the Lightning the next season, but injuries limited him to 70 games, where he went 4-28-32. Struggling with injuries again in 2016, the Lightning sent him down to Syracuse (AHL). His agent announced that he privately requested a trade two months prior, but two weeks into this AHL stint, he was suspended without pay for a no show against the Toronto Marlies. After weeks of controversy, Drouin reported to the Syracuse Crunch on March 8th for the first time in seven weeks. Eventually, Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman would recall him and then a funny thing happened; Drouin would produce. In his only two regular season games after a recall, Drouin would score in each, before exploding with a five goal, nine assist, 14 point playoff in 17 games. Drouin would score 23 goals and 32 assists in his final season season with the Lightning before Yzerman would flip him to Montreal for defensive prospect Mikhail Sergachev. He'd sign a six year, $33M deal to come home to Quebec, but after two productive seasons in Montreal, Drouin has dealt with injuries and anxiety. He hasn't played more than 58 games in a season or scored more than 29 points. At this point, it's hard to see Drouin get back to 50 point seasons.
Elias Lindholm Calgary Flames (2013 5th overall pick by Carolina Hurricanes): Drouin wasn't the only high 2013 pick that a team. Elias Lindholm was taken 5th by the Carolina Hurricanes and was an okay center for the team for five years. Lindholm would not exceed 17 goals or 45 points in any of his seasons despite amassing 64 goals, 124 assists, 188 points in 374 games on Tobacco Road. In June 2018, Hurricanes GM Don Waddell had seen enough and traded Lindholm and defenseman Noah Hanifin for Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland and the rights to Harvard defenseman Adam Fox. Playing for his former Carolina coach Bill Peters in Calgary, Lindholm would nearly DOUBLE his offensive output with 78 points (27 goals, 51 assists) for the Flames. His low of 47 points in a season was merely in 56 games and Lindholm has been an elite defensive center in the NHL. In 2021-22, Lindholm posted career highs goals, assists, points and plus/minus and finished 2nd in Selke trophy voting. At a team friendly $4.85M, he was the top BAHP pick for Most Underpaid NHL Players of 2022.
So while fans have their patience challenged by prospects who haven't yet reached their potential, reflect on that word "yet". Better to give up a day too late than a day too early.
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