Next month, The Flash will hit theaters dissecting the DC multiverse asking a simple question, "What could have been?" The story of the 2022-23 Carolina Hurricanes is one of consistent success, expectations having been met, followed by, wait for it, an undeniable thud. The regular season and playoff success notwithstanding, the season will first be remembered by being swept in a Conference Final for the third consecutive time at that level. So, what is an organization that has won three consecutive division titles, finished second overall in points and won two rounds in the playoffs supposed to do? Is it time for major surgery? Run it back with mostly the same group? This offseason will largely answer those questions.
2022-23 Preseason Expectations: Emerging as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender was a reasonable expectation at the beginning of the 2022-23 season. The Hurricanes set franchise records in winning their second consecutive division title in 2021-22, winning 54 games and amassing 116 points. The expected emergence of Jalen Chatfield to solidify the third defense pair on a rookie contract allowed for a key position to be filled at minimal cost. Needing more offensive firepower, GM Don Waddell was able to acquire LW Max Pacioretty from the Vegas Golden Knights in a salary dump move. The acquisition of Pacioretty was viewed as a key piece to solve the need for a finisher on the power play and provide another high end forward capable of putting the puck in the back of the net. Waddell deftly brought D Brent Burns to Carolina in a trade with the San Jose Sharks. In Burns, the expectation was that he would be paired with D Jaccob Slavin, and serve in the offensive defenseman role. SJ would also retain over 30% of Burns' salary in the trade.
2022-23 Season Results: For the second consecutive season, the Hurricanes would land a top three finish (2nd) in points with 113. In some seasons, this effort would have won a President's Trophy. Despite not making any major moves at the trade deadline while other Metropolitan division contenders loaded up, Carolina would nurse their divisional lead and hold off the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers. After a hard fought six game series victory in the opening round against the New York Islanders, the Hurricanes would ramp up their offense and dispatch of the Devils in five. From there, Carolina would run into the buzzsaw; otherwise known as Matthew Tkachuk, Sergei Bobrovsky and the Florida Panthers. Despite the Hurricanes enjoying a shots advantage in all four games, the Panthers, led by their Matrix-like goaltender and aptitude for timely scoring held the Canes out of the win column.
What went right: Canes can't be spelled without Necas. The 12th overall pick of the 2017 draft, Martin Necas set career highs with a 28 goals, 43 assists and 71 pointsseason. As questions were posed about whether Necas would fulfill his promise, those questions were put to rest. The 71 points by Necas also represented a team leading total. He was utilized as a center and winger, up and down the lineup, scored four overtime goals and demonstrated some leadership chops.
The overall defensive core exceeded expectations. Brent Burns, after accepting a trade to Carolina, more than capably filled the offensive defenseman role formerly occupied by Dougie Hamilton and more recently, Tony DeAngelo. The 18 goals Burns scored as a defenseman were only exceeded by Hamilton and Erik Karlsson. Burns and Slavin formed arguably the best pairing in the NHL. The second pair of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce sustained their strong play from previous seasons. Jalen Chatfield shook off his penchant for taking undisciplined penalties early in the season to form a solid 3rd pair with trade deadline acquisition Shayne Gostisbehere.
The triumvirate of Fredrik Andersen, Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov was capable in net. Despite not having a true number one goaltender, all three played at least 24 games, won 12 or more games, had a shutout, recorded a .900+ save percentage and a sub-2.50 GAA. Brind'Amour deft handling of this unit kept them fresh all season. Goaltending was a question heading into the season, however, it was not the reason the Hurricanes failed to win the Eastern Conference. The Canes extended Kochetkov during the season signaling they could give their "goalie of the future" a bigger role in 23-24.
There was noticeable development from the forward units. Jesperi Kotkaniemi capable stepped into the second line center role and set career highs with a 18g-25a-43p season. Seth Jarvis, despite some early struggles and hearing his name in the trade deadline rumor mill, finished strong and did not look out of place on the first line. Stefan Noesen has established himself as a bona fide NHLer and power play contributor. As the Hurricanes figure to add some higher priced talent this offseason, the continued emergence of these forwards is necessary.
What went wrong: For the fifth consecutive postseason, questions are posed about the lack of timely scoring and the lack of physical play. For all the positive vibes after scoring 24 goals in the NJ series, the timely scoring deserted the Canes in the FLA series. Was it simply an issue of facing a red hot goalie or indicative of a deeper rooted issue? Waddell's decision to not acquire a high end forward after the Pacioretty injury loomed large with RW Andrei Svechnikov injured the week after. What could have been if Pacioretty and Svechnikov were healthy.
The Hurricanes were exposed by a more physical club in Florida. While the Hurricanes have built themselves as a skill team, they have not shown the ability to punish opponents with physicality when the situation warrants. It will be notable if Waddell decides to pursue larger, more physical skaters during the off-season and pivot a bit from his more commonly used skill approach.
Reasons to be optimistic: This Hurricanes team is close. Three consecutive division titles and consecutive top-three finishes in total points will do that. The club is structured remarkably well with zero bad contracts. Young forwards are emerging, the defense core is the best in the league and there's high upside with Kochetkov in net.
Rod Brind'Amour continues to push all the right buttons. 5 for 5 in playoff appearances as head coach, Brind'Amour always has his club ready to play and despite the fast, hyper-aggressive forechecking style he deploys, the club never seems fatigued. The number of bad games over the past three seasons can be counted on one hand.
Tom Dundon has been a revelation as owner. He has shown a willingness to spend to the cap and he has taken hockey relevance in the Carolina market to another level. As the Burns trade demonstrated, players are open to waiving their no-trade clause to come to Carolina. This shift to become a destination location has aided the on-ice product.
Reasons to be Pessimistic: When will the clock strike midnight? Everything broke the Hurricanes way this season and that opportunity wasn't seized. After losing to the Rangers in the playoffs last season, it was ideal to avoid them this time. Not only did the Hurricanes hold on to win the division, they were able to survive a pesky Islanders team, watch the Devils knock out the Rangers and watch the greatest regular season team of all time lose in the first round. The power play was scoring, the penalty kill was prevent goals and the goaltending was solid. It's difficult to foresee a situation where everything goes according to plan again.
As great as Brind'Amour has been, he'll have to dig in next season. The more failed attempts at winning the Cup, the harder it's going to be to repeat the regular season success. The Devils and Rangers appear to have firm grasps on playoff positions. The Islanders have an all world goaltender. Will the Penguins and Capitals be rejuvenated after rare playoff misses? Will one of the Blue Jackets and Flyers emerge as was seen with the Devils last season? The Hurricanes won't wake up and make the playoffs. It will take some work.
What will the roster look like? Center Jordan Staal might not return after his 10-year contract expires this summer. How big of a hit will that be in the locker room? How will Waddell address the scoring deficiencies that were exposed in the Florida series? While there is $24M in available cap space, a starting goaltender will need to be found, depth wingers will be needed and Waddell needs to assess whether he's willing to pay a free agent more than the $8.4M C, Sebastian Aho makes.
The Cup contending window is closing. While the Hurricanes are positioned to contend in 2023-24, Sebastian Aho, RW Teuvo Teravainen, LW Jordan Martinook, D Brady Skjei, D Brett Pesce and D Jalen Chatfield will all be unrestricted free agents. Moreover, C Martin Necas, RW Seth Jarvis and C Jack Drury will be due raises. Some of these players should sign this offseason, however, should expectations not be met in 23-24, this roster will look markedly different in 24-25.
What this team needs: There is NOT a need to blow this up. Only one club can win the Stanley Cup. Major surgery is not required for this club to get over the hump.
A decision needs to be taken on Staal. He might not justify the current 6M salary, however, he's the long tenured captain and remains one of the best shutdown centers in the NHL. If Staal is not brought back, Waddell will need to find an answer for the 3C position as that players is not currently in the organization.
Waddell will also need to assess the long term salary structure of the club. To date, he has been unwilling to exceed Aho's 8.4M salary at forward and Slavin's 5.3M salary on defense. The space is there to bring in an elite forward, however, this would compromise the structure he had set. The Florida series exposed the lack of timely scoring. That issue might not correct itself.
Wingers of a more physical nature would help. Acquisitions in the past season of RW Jesse Puljujarvi and RW Ondrej Kase didn't help. Physical players in the mold of Alex Killorn and Corey Perry would provide the Cup pedigree, grit and jam that would benefit.
2023-24 Expectations: Contend for the Cup. The window is open, at least for one more season. The Hurricanes need to get some more scoring, more grit and demonstrate the versatility to deploy styles where their opponent doesn't matter. A deep run in the 2023-24 playoffs should be the starting point for this club.
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